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タイトル: 3囚人問題再考(笠原俊彦教授定年退職記念号)
その他のタイトル: Rethinking the Problem of Three Prisoners
著者: 式見, 拓仙
著者(別表記) : Shikimi, Takuhisa
発行日: 2007年12月
出版者: 長崎大学経済学会 / Economics Society of Nagasaki University
引用: 經營と經濟, 87(3), pp.55-66; 2007
抄録: This article will investigate the way we can naturally interpret the problem of the three prisoners especially when the prior probabilities that they will be set free are not uniform. Suppose that three prisoners a, b and c are in prison. The prisoner a knows that two of them will be executed and one released from prison, and then asks the prison guard 'Even if you will tell me which of the two prisoners, b and c, is going to be executed, you will give me no information about the probability of my release, since either b or c is certain to be executed.' The prison guard honestly tells a that b is to be executed. In naive settings, by a simple calculation, the posterior probability that a will be set free remain the same, and hence the a's assertion is justified. It is known, however, that there can be the case that the posterior probability that a will be released becomes smaller than its prior probability. This case may seem to be intuitively unacceptable. We will study how this situation can be interpreted.
キーワード: the problem of three prisoners / Bayes' theorem
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10069/21379
ISSN: 02869101
資料タイプ: Departmental Bulletin Paper
原稿種類: publisher
出現コレクション:第87巻 第3号

引用URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10069/21379



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