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METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE INTENSITY OF MALARIA OUTBREAK IN ZIMBABWE


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タイトル: METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE INTENSITY OF MALARIA OUTBREAK IN ZIMBABWE
その他のタイトル: ジンバブエ国における流行期のマラリア発生数に及ぼす気象因子
著者: Moji, Kazuhiko / Tsuyuoka, Reiko / B., Makunike / Tanaka, Hiroshi
著者(別表記) : 門司, 和彦 / 露岡, 令子 / B., Makunike / 田中, 寛
発行日: 2002年 9月15日
出版者: 日本熱帯医学会 / Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine
引用: 日本熱帯医学会雑誌, vol.30(3), pp.283-287; 2002
抄録: Correlation between meteorological data observed at Gokwe and intensity of malaria outbreak or the number of clinical malaria cases occurring at malaria season in whole Zimbabwe was studied. Meteorological year (Met Year) in this country starts in July at the coldest month and ends in the next June, and malaria peak season lasts from January to May. The correlation of the number of clinical malaria cases at peak season in thousand (Mp) and meteorological factors was calculated from the data in 8 years from MetYear 1990/1991 to 1997/1998. Among single factors, correlation was highest with a total rainfall (mm) in a year (Rt) followed by that in January (R1), in February (R2) and average temperature in August (Av8), showing the coefficients of 0.873, 0.870, 0.862 and 0.739, respectively. The adjusted R2 of the above factors were 0.722, 0.717, 0.700 and 0.470, respectively, where Av8 was non significant statistically. In two meteorological factors, the correlations higher than a single factor were a combination of R1+R2 with an adjusted R2 of 0.792. Malaria at peak season will be increased by more rainfall in January, February and total in a year, and may be high average temperature in August. Formulae of regression lines are as follow, and by these, intensity of malaria outbreak at malaria season will be indicated. 1. Mp=361.30×Av8-6,182.96 (approximation) 2. Mp=3.12×R1+43.37 (good fit) 3. Mp=1.82×R1+2.47×R2-15.02 (best fit) 4. Mp=1.463×Rt-323.21 (good fit for retrograde study)
キーワード: Malaria / Intensity of outbreak / Meteorological factors / rainfall / Zimbabwe
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10069/22437
ISSN: 03042146
権利: Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine
資料タイプ: Journal Article
原稿種類: publisher
出現コレクション:120 学術雑誌論文

引用URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10069/22437

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