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Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka Using Time Series Data


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タイトル: Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka Using Time Series Data
著者: Goto, Kensuke / Kumarendran, Balachandran / Mettananda, Sachith / Gunasekara, Deepa / Fujii, Yoshito / Kaneko, Satoshi
発行日: 2013年 5月 9日
出版者: Public Library of Science
引用: PLoS ONE, 8(5), e63717; 2013
抄録: In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10069/32824
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063717
権利: © 2013 Goto et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
資料タイプ: Journal Article
原稿種類: publisher
出現コレクション:120 学術雑誌論文

引用URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10069/32824

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