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Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model


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Title: Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model
Authors: Kim, Yoonhee / Ratnam, J. V. / Doi, Takeshi / Morioka, Yushi / Behera, Swadhin / Tsuzuki, Ataru / Minakawa, Noboru / Sweijd, Neville / Kruger, Philip / Maharaj, Rajendra / Imai, Chisato Chrissy / Ng, Chris Fook Sheng / Chung, Yeonseung / Hashizume, Masahiro
Issue Date: 29-Nov-2019
Publisher: Springer Nature
Citation: Scientific reports, 9(1), art.no.17882; 2019
Abstract: Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.
Description: Publisher Correction: A supplementary file containing Fig S1 was omitted from the original version of this Article. This has been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at time of publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58890-y
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10069/39573
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53838-3
Rights: © The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Type: Journal Article
Text Version: publisher
Appears in Collections:Articles in academic journal

Citable URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10069/39573

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